Although the European Union has been plagued by slowing growth and shaken up by recent referendums, improved global growth, increased focus on fiscal policy and upcoming elections could shake things up in 2017.
Following Brexit, the election of Donald Trump and Italy’s referendum vote (Italy’s almost-version of Brexit) in 2016, it is conceivable that upcoming political moments will follow the trend.
But on 5 December, Austria bucked the populist trend by choosing not to elect far right-wing federal presidential candidate Norbert Hofer. Could this mean that despite concerns regarding the stability and future of the EU, assuming the worst might be premature?
Perhaps the upcoming elections in Germany, France and the Netherlands in 2017 may not go to right-wing politicians who are pushing for anti-immigration and inward-looking policies after all.
Arthur Kamp, investment economist at Sanlam Investments, cautions that we should not be too quick to declare we understand how voters feel or which way they are likely to vote. “As we have seen, polls can get it wrong. One can only be certain of an outcome once the final votes are tallied.”
One of the key votes in 2017 is the presidential election in France. There are concerns that right-wing candidate, Marine Le Pen, will stand a chance of taking the top job in France, bringing with her a Brexit-like referendum for France to exit the EU.
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