A REGION IN TRANSITION: SHIFTING SANDS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The arrival of more ultra-long haul flights is ushering in a new era of more point-to-point service with smaller aircraft, a trend that is sure to challenge the mega-hub mentality

- Byron Bohlman

LAST OCTOBER’S QANTAS 19-HOUR 16-MINUTE NONSTOP Project Sunrise test flight from New York to Sydney measured the viability of ultra-long-distance flights on crews, passengers and the B787-9 on the 16,200-km sector. The same month, Air New Zealand announced it will introduce nonstop service between Newark and Auckland next year. These are yet two more examples of the growing trend to ultra-long-haul travel. QANTAS, Singapore Airlines and Qatar Airways already fly some of the longest nonstop routes in the world.

A new generation of Boeing and Airbus jets with extended range has huge implications for airports and carriers in the Middle East. And it’s not just technology that’s changing the aviation landscape. Low-cost airlines are poised to make big inroads in a region that was once the benchmark of the premium travel experience.

BUCKING THE TREND - REVERSE GROWTH

For decades, Dubai, and more recently Abu Dhabi and Doha, have built their aviation fortresses by capturing a huge share of the enormous flow of traffic between Europe and Australasia. For some twenty years, those hubs have been growing thanks to robust demand, range-limited airplanes, and expanding networks that attracted connecting passengers. Last year, Dubai handled some 90 million passengers.

But the number of year-over-year international revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) recorded by Middle East airlines hit a plateau over the last 12-15 months, and even declined 0.8 percent in February, according to IATA data published by CAPA. While carriers in other world regions reported positive year-over-year RPK growth that month, only the Middle East saw a negative trend.