Will Trade Triumph Over Trump?
The Dollar Business|January 2017

With the Electoral College in US voting in favour of Donald Trump, questions of who will be the most powerful man in the world after Obama have been put to rest. What would a President Trump, who won on an isolationist platform, mean for the future of world trade? Will a US withdrawal from TPP signal the beginning of the end for the mega trade pact? Will China eventually benefit? The Dollar Business finds out.

Indranil Das
Will Trade Triumph Over Trump?

It was a long shot. Some fervent liberals had hoped that Donald Trump would fail to garner the requisite number of votes from the Electoral College. But with the electoral votes cast and counted, the last effort to stop a Trump presidency was exhausted. Love him or hate him, the world will now have to contend with President Donald Trump. His campaign rhetoric against China was something that many thought was just that, rhetoric. But his recent overtures towards Taiwan and his consistent remarks against China may mean that he will follow through on – at the least – some of his campaign promises.

He has already announced that US is walking away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), expressed a desire to work on a preferential trade agreement with UK, talked about imposing punitive taxes on US companies who outsource jobs abroad and made clear a desire to revisit the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Even before he assumes office, through his remarks on trade and key appointments he has made, Trump has cast his trademark unpredictable shadow on global trade.

CLAIMS VERSUS FACTS

Since Trump had made 'Making America Great' his campaign plank, let us first see how a Trump presidency may fare in terms of growing the US GDP. The economy and how to improve it was in focus during the presidential election. While the Republican Party and President-elect Trump has said that Obama and his liberal policies have failed to boost the economy and it is time to revert to fiscal conservatism to revive the economy, history suggests that economy has typically fared better under a Democrat president. Yes, you heard it right!

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