Power Crisis: Is The End In Sight?

At least two years before the private sector can fill the electricity gap.

- Mariam Isa

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s unexpected decision to lift the cap on private sector electricity generation has fuelled hope that an end to South Africa’s power crisis is in sight, and that further long-awaited reforms to spur the sluggish economy are imminent.

But even in the best-case scenario, it will be another two years before enough new generation capacity is installed to cover the existing gap between supply and demand, allowing Eskom to end the rolling power cuts, which it has been forced to implement to protect the national grid.

Eskom spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha was blunt about this in interviews following the 10 June announcement of Ramaphosa’s decision, saying that load-shedding would not be eliminated until the country had an additional 4 000MW of additional generation capacity.

But there are implementation risks to Ramaphosa’s bold decision to intervene on energy policy reform, posed both by bureaucratic red tape and outright opposition. This could delay the ability of private companies to forge ahead with plans to ensure that their electricity supply is stable.

The National Energy Regulator of SA (Nersa) has been notoriously slow in granting licenses for private electricity generation above the previous 1MW cap, which has now been raised to 100MW — twice as high as the level the business community had been campaigning for.