Missile Muscle

India and China are both beefing up their long-range nuclear capabilities but the topic is off limits in official dialogue, straining ties between the two countries.

- Ananth Krishnan

DAYS AFTER INDIA TESTED ITS AGNI-V INTERCONTINENTAL ballistic missile—a 5,000 km range missile that can reach Beijing and deep beyond—in December last year, China’s secretive People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) conducted an equally significant test. But one that was meant to be under the radar. In January, diplomatic circles in Beijing were abuzz with rumours that the PLARF had carried out its first-ever test of a Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV)—launched on a DF-5C intercontinental ballistic missile—carrying as many as 10 warheads, a capability many experts thought China didn’t possess.

The reported test was seen as significant as it suggested that China, which is thought to possess some 260 nuclear warheads—more than twice India’s estimated 120 but a small fraction of US’s 7,000—was moving towards a rapidly expanded stockpile, as a 10-warhead MIRV capability would require.

The tests pointed to what many experts say is the elephant in the room and an increasing source of mistrust in India’s ties with China. Both sides are rapidly acquiring conventional and nuclear deterrence capabilities, even if China’s arsenal still dwarfs India’s. But what is remarkable, and a source of concern for experts, is that none of this figures in talks between the countries at any level. The reason, according to Chinese officials and experts, is that Beijing still views India as an ‘illegal’ nuclear weapons state, and talking would ‘legalise’ India’s status.