The Lockdown Blues

Calibrated lockdowns, determined by the states, may have restricted the economic damage in this second wave, but consumer demand for all but essentials is likely to take a hard hit

- M.G. Arun And Shwweta Punj

With about 366,000 new cases and 3,745 deaths in the previous 24 hours on May 10, the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has taken a vicious toll on India’s health. Predictably, the economic toll has also been heavy, though nothing like the carnage seen in the first quarter of the last fiscal year, when GDP growth crashed -23.9 per cent in response to the Centre’s no-notice lockdown.

A major concern of the second wave is that the virus has spread into India’s hinterland and could wreak havoc in villages, towns and small cities. Lockdowns might help break the chain of transmission, but they will only postpone another surge unless the period is used to urgently vaccinate the population. The economic cost will depend on how quickly this happens—and the news on that front is not too promising (see Shots in the Dark, page 32)—and how quickly economic activity can return to an uninhibited normal.