THE HISTORIAN WHO SEES THE FUTURE
The Atlantic|December 2020
PETER TURCHIN BELIEVES HE HAS DISCOVERED IRON LAWS THAT DICTATE THE RISE AND FALL OF CIVILIZATIONS. HE PREDICTS A DIRE DECADE FOR THE UNITED STATES.
GRAEME WOOD
THE HISTORIAN WHO SEES THE FUTURE

Peter Turchin, one of the world’s experts on pine beetles and possibly also on human beings, met me reluctantly this summer on the campus of the University of Connecticut at Storrs, where he teaches. Like many people during the pandemic, he preferred to limit his human contact. He also doubted whether human contact would have much value anyway, when his mathematical models could already tell me everything I needed to know.

But he had to leave his office sometime. (“One way you know I am Russian is that I cannot think sitting down,” he told me. “I have to go for a walk.”) Neither of us had seen much of anyone since the pandemic had closed the country several months before. The campus was quiet. “A week ago, it was even more like a neutron bomb hit,” Turchin said. Animals were timidly reclaiming the campus, he said: squirrels, woodchucks, deer, even an occasional red-tailed hawk. During our walk, groundskeepers and a few kids on skateboards were the only other representatives of the human population in sight.

This story is from the December 2020 edition of The Atlantic.

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This story is from the December 2020 edition of The Atlantic.

Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.