What To Expect In 2023

A near-inevitable global recession sparked by a lengthening war in Europe's frozen east; an energy crisis coupled with soaring inflation Covid-19 running rampant in China... predictions for 2023 are grim. Still, there are reasons to be hopeful. The energy crisis has spurred an unprecedented demand for renewables, which are expected to boom. In Brazil, a new president has sworn to protect the Amazon. Repressive regimes, meanwhile, will be nervously looking at Iran, where hardline clerics are locked in a struggle with a pro-democracy uprising that threatens to overwhelm them. Guardian correspondents around the world share their takes on what to watch out for in 2023...

Peace Between the Nations Is Far Off but A Ceasefire Is Realistic

Will the Ukraine war end in 2023? It's impossible to imagine a handshake between Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin, suggesting that a negotiated peace between Ukraine and Russia after 10 months of hard fighting and tens of thousands of casualties on both sides is a long way off.

Ukraine is demanding the creation of a war crimes court for the Russian leadership and reparations from the Kremlin, as well as the restoration of its entire territory. None of this will be conceded by Moscow, which is never going to be faced with a 1945-style total defeat.

A more realistic endpoint would be a military ceasefire, in which two increasingly exhausted combatants see frontline positions harden around a line of control, in effect a repeat of what happened after the fighting of 2014, without the veneer of the previous Minsk peace agreements.

On the current frontlines, or something similar, that would suit Russia, which seeks time to regenerate its shattered military and incorporate the territory. But it would not suit Ukraine.

The incentive is on Ukraine to probe for weaknesses and try to attack, and its opportunity starts now, in the depths of winter, when the ground is frozen.

Although Kyiv warns of Russian counterattacks, Moscow's efforts are more likely to be limited, even diversionary, probably focused on the Donbas, where it has been on the attack, often ineffectively, since April.

The key point will come when it appears Ukraine's offensive potential is exhausted.

That will become clearer by the summer or autumn, and will at some point prompt a question for its western backers: how long should the west continue supplying military aid at current levels to Ukraine?

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