Are The Tories Really Facing A 1997-Style Poll Wipeout?

A fresh, in-depth and fairly innovative poll conducted by YouGov suggests the market research company's new MRP model finds Keir Starmer would win a 120-seat majority, were the general election to be held tomorrow.

- SEAN O'GRADY

The Tories would be left with barely more seats than they had in the New Labour landslide in 1997, and the lowest ever vote share for the Conservatives in a British general election since the time of the Great Reform Act of 1832 and the dawn of modern democratic politics.

Could it be that bad?

Yes. The previous nadirs for a Tory electoral performance (in share of vote) were recorded by John Major (1997, 30.1 per cent), Ted Heath (October 1974, 35.8 per cent), Winston Churchill (1945, 35.2 per cent) and you have to go all the way back to Robert Peel in 1834 and the Duke of Wellington in 1832, both on 29.2 per cent, to see how badly Rishi Sunak's prospective 26 per cent will look in a long historical perceptive.

What does the poll say?

It's indeed mostly bad news for the government. If you were an optimistic Conservative you'd point to the number of "don't knows", the Labour poll rating registering below 40 per cent, the (relatively) low lead of 13.5 per cent, and the fact that Reform UK's popularity is in single figures and that they won't have any seats and will be thus unable to establish a bridgehead inside parliament.

Labour, on 39.5 per cent, would in fact be slightly down on Jeremy Corbyn's score in 2017 (40 per cent) - not such a positive endorsement. The Greens seem to getting an exceptional boost in this poll, at 7.5 per cent some way ahead of their recent polling and by-election showings, probably on the back of Starmer's attitude to the war in Gaza. The collapse in SNP support is also a welcome windfall for Labour.