The West Is Up In Arms But Little Has Altered In Ukraine

Maybe I wasn’t catching the mood correctly. But it seemed to me that, even as Washington and London denounced Moscow’s recognition of Ukraine’s two rebel regions as just the first stage in what would become an all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine – a prelude perhaps to the biggest conflict in Europe since the Second World War – a rather different note sounded through. It was a note of triumphalism, vindication, even “Gotcha!”

- Mary Dejevsky

Here was Russia, with its demonic president, Vladimir Putin, gratifyingly conforming to what western hawks have long regarded as its malign “pattern of behaviour”. Within hours, the United States and a good part of Europe started to wheel out the sanctions they had been hyping for weeks (largely to disguise the fact that they were not prepared actually to fight for Ukraine).

In the UK, the House of Commons felt free to indulge in a veritable orgy of Russophobia, and the government could finally set about some serious bashing of Russian oligarchs and banks – well, three oligarchs and five banks, actually – as though the opportunity had simply not been there before.

A solemn Liz Truss, her Russian geography gaffe forgotten, sat at her desk, union jack behind her, signing the orders into effect. The Balts and the Poles offered their “told you so” messages to the world’s airwaves. Even the conflict-averse Germans joined in, with chancellor Olaf Scholz embracing the heaven-sent chance to halt Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline that was a source of contention in his three-way coalition. The long-forecast Russian invasion of Ukraine, all seemed to have agreed, was finally here.

Or was it? Is it? And how much has really changed between this week and last? In one sense, the answer might be everything; in another, though, it is very little.

What has certainly changed – and how! – is the public approach of the Kremlin. What we saw on Monday was not a continuation of any supposed “pattern of behaviour”. It appeared, rather, to be the snapping of Putin’s patience. Less than 24 hours after the US, the Europeans and Russia had all seemed to be on board for a French diplomatic initiative and a new US-Russia summit, Putin was in effect ripping it all up.