Third Covid Wave Likely Only In Pockets: Experts

Scientists and biostatisticians are rushing to prepare mathematical models for a possible third wave of Covid-19 in India, but most epidemiologists and public health specialists reckon that surges may only happen in pockets rather than hitting the country in one go.

- Sumi Sukanya Dutta

Panels of experts, including the one under National Institute of Disaster Management and another under the department of biotechnology, have predicted a possible third wave in September-October with a large number of daily cases.

Virologists think India is likely to see outbreaks in small pockets at one time in areas and communities with low levels of exposure, even though 30,000-50,000 daily cases could continue to be reported.

Virologist T Jacob John said estimates showing big Covid numbers in coming weeks may be reflecting only “fear and speculation”, rather than basing projections on a scientific model. “As per data available, while nearly 40 crore Indians may still be susceptible to Covid-19 infection, I see little chance of a major wave even if there is a new variant, which is more transmissible than the Delta variant,” he said.