Russia's Dangerous Game

Moscow’s nuclear sabre-rattling confronts the West with tough choices

- Jane Kinninmont

There is no clear end in sight to the war in Ukraine. Although Ukraine has made recent military gains, Putin has doubled down, by annexing parts of Ukraine and portraying Russia’s invasion as part of a civilisational war with the West. The Russian leadership has also hinted that nuclear weapons could come into play. As well as the rhetoric, there are real concerns that the changing nature of nuclear weapons may destabilise the traditional deterrence equation – creating many more possible scenarios than nuclear strategists and game theorists imagined during the Cold War.

Moscow’s nuke option

For years now Russia and other nuclear-armed states have invested in “tactical” nuclear weapons that are designed to be deployed in a war-fighting situation on the battlefield, rather than on long-range missiles aimed at the capitals of other nuclear states.

● Putin has repeatedly invoked Russia’s nuclear weapons in his recent speeches, though he said in late October it would not make sense for Russia to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

● He noted that Russia has a clear doctrine setting out the conditions under which nuclear weapons could be used. But this is not wholly reassuring.

● The Russian doctrine includes the option to use nuclear weapons if the state faces an existential threat. Defeat in Ukraine might be embarrassing for Russia, but would not be an existential threat.