Bigger Is Better

AFTER MORE THAN 300 YEARS, India is once again the world’s most populous country. China is not pleased. Beijing’s foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin was quick to claim that China still had over 900 million people of working age. He tactfully didn’t mention that this number was declining rapidly.

- MINHAZ MERCHANT

How rapidly? According to a United Nations report published on 19 April 2023, the most startling revelation is that China’s total population will halve from the current 1.43 billion to just over 700 million in 2100. India’s population, in sharp contrast, will still be 1.40 billion in 2100, having peaked at 1.60 billion in 2050 before plateauing. Crucially, the average Chinese, already nearly 40 years old, will be over 55 in 2100. The average Indian today is 28 and will still be only 40 in 2100.

Population and Productivity

What will be the impact of this on workforce productivity? As Roshan Kishore, the data editor of Hindustan Times, pointed out on 21 April 2023, “The 2022 World Population Prospects (WPP) data — the basis of the United Nations (UN) report released on 19 April 2023 — shows that India is expected to have outgrown China in 2023 not just in terms of overall population but also working-age (15-59 year) population.

“India’s lead vis-a-vis China’s working-age population will become 1.5 times by 2048 and then reach two times by the year 2076. By 2100, till when WPP projections are available, India’s working-age population will be 2.3 times that of China’s. Ceteris paribus (all other things remaining the same), this should give a huge economic advantage to India vis-a-vis China.”