Can Dangote Refinery Drive Down Nigeria's Petrol Prices?
Offshore Africa|July 2024
Contrary to general expectations in Nigeria that the price of Premium Motor Spirit will drop as soon as production commences in Dangote Refinery, industry watchers fear the worst may happen.
Can Dangote Refinery Drive Down Nigeria's Petrol Prices?

The recent report attributed to the Chairman of Dangote Group Aliko Dangote saying petrol produced in his refinery will hit the market before the end of July, should cause tremendous excitement in Africa’s most populous country. This news is what the generality of the people have been expecting to hear since May 29, 2023, when President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced the discontinuation of government’s subsidy on petroleum products.

The sudden announcement caused a spike in petrol price in the country. Marketers jacked up petrol price from N197 to about N600. Due to fluctuation in global crude prices petrol price has been unstable and currently the product varies between N700 to N800 depending on the location. The reality is that petrol is no longer a cheap commodity in Nigeria.

Majority of Nigerians initially anticipated that refining crude locally will reduce cost, which will translate to lower prices at the pump. Though there were some skeptics, who were not carried away with the start-up of the refinery. They argued that Dangote being a businessman would naturally expect to make profit. Hence, Nigerians should not expect a huge difference between imported and Dangote petrol.

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