AFTER ONE YEAR WILL UKRAINE BE VICTORIOUS OVER RUSSIA'S INVASION?

On 24 February when Russian forces first crossed Ukraine's borders there were few who believed Kyiv would even last a week, let alone have any chance against Russia's overwhelming military. Yet when US President Joe Biden made a surprise and morale-building visit to Kyiv on 20 February he did so with a startlingly different assessment than defence planners would have given him a year ago.

A day later, at an address to the public in the Polish capitol's Royal Castle, the Joe Biden said flatly "brutality will never grind down the will of a free Ukraine. Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never."

There are still major questions about the way forward for Ukraine, one year into the war. But discussions among analysts and defence officials, speaking in public appearances over the past month, have become more optimistic that Ukraine could make gains this coming spring. This is due, in no small measure, to the deliveries by the US and others to Kyiv of a steady stream of advanced weapon systems. Nothing is certain, but if Ukraine is to win, there does now appear to be a roadmap forward and some say, those gains could be big enough to cause a fracturing in Moscow that would force Russian president Vladimir Putin to reverse course.

Sustaining this level of offensive capability and continuing to degrade Putin's military depends on Ukraine continuing to receive a relentless flow of arms and munitions from the 54 nations that are part of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group. There appears to be a consensus among those members to continuously provide progressively more sophisticated and longer-range weaponry that has permitted the Ukrainians to achieve technological surprise over the Russian armed forces.