The Year Ahead

"As we welcome 2023 and the pandemic cloud is slowly lifted, strong trends have emerged; but are they indicative of the future? We asked five respected leaders in their fields for their thoughts on the coming year

- Chit L Lijauco

Even the appearance of new Covid recombinants XBB and XBC in the last quarter of the year could not stop the surge of business activities in the country. The Philippine economy is simply raring to get up and go and recover what it has lost during the two years of pandemic lockdowns and semi-lockdowns. But it may be easier said than done.

Economists, for instance, see a disconcerting picture. "The two major short-term problems we are facing now are inflation and economic growth," says Solita "Winnie" Monsod, an economics professor at the University of the Philippines. "Unfortunately, these two are mutually exclusive. If you are going to put down inflation too much, you are going to contract the economy. That is why there must be a delicate balance between the two."

However, Monsod will always pick economic growth over curtailing inflation at any time. "We must be more selective in spending, such as substituting lower priced goods for higher priced goods. At least, I hope, people will still have a choice."

And yet again, the solution is more complex. Monsod says that "there are other foundational problems affecting economic growth". She names these as poverty, corruption, and the rule of law.

Then she adds, "It does not look promising." Take the case of poverty, Monsod elaborates. "Most of the poverty arises from agriculture and rural areas. And yet, we still do not have an Agriculture Secretary." For the president of the Philippines to fill in the position is not ideal "because agriculture is a full-time jobs," she adds.

The same is true with the problem of health. "We do not yet have a Health Secretary. You know what I mean?" Monsod stresses.