THE IMPACT OF SOUTH AFRICA'S GENERAL ELECTION: CHARTING A NEW ERA IN AFRICAN POLITICS

The recent South African general election results marked a historic shift in politics and increased uncertainty.

- H.E. Prof. Dr. Ambassador Tal Edgars

Introduction

General elections were held in South Africa on 29 May 2024 with a voter turnout of 58.6% (vs. 66% in 2019), the lowest on record since universal suffrage was implemented in 1994. The final results were declared three days later, on 2 June. Parliament (composed of the National Assembly and the National Council) has 14 days after the announcement of the results to elect a President. These results were highly anticipated, as, for the first time in the post-apartheid era, the African National Congress (ANC) was widely expected to lose its absolute majority, which it ultimately did. These results put the ANC and President Cyril Ramaphosa in a tight spot regarding the formation of a governing coalition, as the results of its smaller partners are insufficient to secure a 50+ 1 majority (or 204 MPs in the 400-seat National Assembly), raising uncertainty for the coming years.

The ANC's result was even worse than expectations, as it barely secured 40% of the vote for the National Assembly (159 seats) vs. 57.5% in the 2019 elections (230 seats). The centrist Democratic Alliance (DA), the main opposition party, came in second with 21.8% (87 seats) of the vote. The biggest surprise was the strong showing of uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK party), launched in December 2023 by ex-president Jacob Zuma (in office from 2009 to 2018, but ineligible at this election due to a criminal conviction), which secured 14.4% of the vote (58 seats). Meanwhile, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the traditional third political force in the country since 2014 and led by Julius Malema, came in fourth at 9.7% (39 seats) (Chart 1).