MADHYA PRADESH/ BJP: THE BATTLE WITHIN

It's that season again in Madhya Pradesh. With assembly election just round the corner, guessing games around leadership in the state BJP-both at the organisational level and in government-has got capital Bhopal buzzing once more.

- Rahul Noronha

Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the state's longest-serving chief minister, is by now a predictable victim of this parlour game: 'Will he stay or will he go?' is a question that is fond of stalking him.

This time, doubts around the continuation of BJP state president Vishnu Dutt Sharma offer an additional flavour that's generating much talk in political circles in the state. Sharma's three-year term in office ends on February 15.

Chouhan's fourth term has been by many occasions pockmarked when it was rumoured that he would be eased out of office by the central leadership. The chief reason for this theory gaining ground this time is the BJP's proclivity towards a 'fresh face' to lead the party in poll-bound states, especially when anti-incumbency is a concern. Chouhan's perceived strained relations with the central leadership have not helped his cause either.

The exit theory usually gains ground every time Chouhan has an appointment with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. These meetings typically come through at short notice, making the CM's trips to Delhi sudden affairs. Such unannounced trips are often taken in Bhopal as a sign of him being in trouble—indeed, a precursor to his being moved out. In August 2022, speaking at the INDIA TODAY State of the States Conclave in Bhopal, CM Chouhan had offered a colourful variation on the 'loyal soldier of the party' theme. Taking his trademark humility to an extreme, he said the party had given him a lot and that if the leadership assigned him the task of laying out mats for meetings, he would gladly do it. This statement was construed as a farewell speech by Chouhan but, again, nothing happened subsequently. Political observers have developed another pastime in the past few months-reading Chouhan's body language. Every time the CM smiles less or has droopy shoulders, the Mantralaya comes alive with replacement theories.