Minority Report

He has not lost the Dhubri seat in Assam since 2009. Now he is fighting for political survival as Bengali Muslims look to favour the Congress

- Snigdhendu Bhattacharya

At a weekly market in Sonari Gaon, a densely-populated village 10 km south of the Brahmaputra River in Nagaon district of central Assam in eastern India, Rashidul Alam remains unsure of his party’s electoral fortunes. A grassroots worker of Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Alam senses a wind of change that can adversely impact his party.

“As the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has divided voters on communal lines, some Muslims may opt for the Congress simply because they are the bigger anti-BJP party,” says Alam.

In the 2021 assembly elections, the AIUDF’s Aminul Islam recorded a hat-trick, winning the Dhing seat, of which Sonari Gaon is a part. Islam is now the AIUDF candidate for Nagaon Lok Sabha seat. But Alam is unsure if Islam can pull as many votes in Dhing—one of the eight assembly segments that make up the Nagaon Lok Sabha seat—as he did three years ago.

Delimitation has turned Nagaon (Nowgong) into a Muslim-majority constituency from a Hindu-majority one. Islam is the son of the late Mufti Khairul Islam, one of Assam’s foremost Islamic leaders. Even though the Congress candidate, three-time MP Pradyut Bordoloi, is a Hindu, the Congress is hoping to get the overwhelming majority of Muslim votes in Nagaon.

“The Congress’ campaign targeting Ajmal saab as the BJP’s ‘B-team’ has resonated with some Bengali Muslims for some reason,” says Alam. He adds that the party is leaving no stone unturned to dispel this misconception.

Eighteen years ago, Ajmal emerged as a key player in Assam politics. His newly-launched party, Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF), won 10 seats and came second in another 11 in the 2006 assembly elections, securing a nine per cent vote share. Its rise weakened the Congress’ support base among the Bengali-speaking Muslims of southern and western Assam.