A pivot to defence

Budget 2025 must mark a decisive shift in the allocation of resources to defence and internal security

- R Jagannathan

Budget-as-usual is not an option for Narendra Modi and his finance minister this time. While normal obsessions about growth, jobs, infrastructure and fiscal balance will always remain important, Budget 2025-26 has to focus on something that has been screaming for attention for long: External and internal security.

Defence spending takes up one-eighth of the Budget, and possibly accounts for about 2-2.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), the upper end figure being an estimate made by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute for 2023. The small, single-digit increase budgeted for this fiscal (2024-25) is barely enough to cover for inflation. In short, even with an allocation of ₹6.21 trillion for defence, we are falling seriously short, given the growing security challenges in our neighbourhood.

Over the past few years, external security threats have escalated, even as our capabilities have stagnated or, in some cases, declined. Despite a tentative handshake across the Himalayas with China over patrolling rights in Ladakh, China remains a potent threat. It is rapidly investing in advanced fighter aircraft even as our effective air defence squadron strength is falling. Chinese warships will soon be roaming around in the Indian Ocean to our detriment.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has chosen to be a Chinese vassal state, but there is now a massive threat emerging on our eastern flanks, where a regime change operation in Bangladesh (possibly supported by the US) has made our entire Northeast vulnerable to infiltration and jihadi terrorism. What was once a "two-and-a-half front" war scenario (Pakistan, China, and internal security threats) that the armed forces were preparing for now threatens to evolve into a "three-and-a-half front" conflict that we must be prepared for.