Analysts divided on GAIL's prospects; limited fresh gains in the offing

While most analysts are expecting poor results from oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter of 2024-25 (Q1FY25) and even in the first half (H1) of FY25, GAIL (India) could be an outlier.

- DEVANGSHU DATTA

Upstream producers, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) could do well due to strong crude and gas prices, but refiners are likely to see weak margins and the impact of frozen prices during the election period will also be negative.

GAIL has delivered a return of over 25 per cent since January. It has an improving volume growth outlook with 7 per cent volume CAGR estimated during FY24-26.b There is also the potential for significant tariff hikes in the transmission business in the second half (H2) of FY25 and the completion of ₹30,000 crore worth of projects in transmission and petrochemicals, which will boost its return on equity (ROE) and return on capital employed (ROCE).

The end of the investment cycle will mean far better free cash flow for GAIL in FY26. Analysts believe that there could be tariff hikes of 10-12 per cent starting in H2FY25 and continuing through FY26 and this could boost FY26 net profit as well.