Economy expands 8.4% in Q3

SURGES PAST RBI, ECONOMIST ESTIMATES. FY24 GROWTH PROJECTION NOW UP AT 7.6%

- ASIT RANJAN MISHRA

Defying expectations by a considerable margin, India's economy witnessed a six-quarter high growth rate of 8.4 per cent in Q3FY24, largely due to extraordinarily high tax collections and control over subsidies, amid significant revisions in earlier gross domestic product (GDP) estimates.

A Bloomberg poll of economists had estimated GDP growth of 6.6 per cent for the December quarter, while the Reserve Bank of India had projected slightly slower growth at 6.5 per cent for the same period.

The National Statistical Office (NSO), in its second advance estimates data released on Thursday, revised the FY24 estimate growth upward to 7.6 per cent, from the 7.3 per cent projected in January.

This upward revision was aided by a downward adjustment of the FY23 growth estimate to 7 per cent, from the previously projected 7.2 per cent.

The average GDP growth for the first three quarters of FY24 stands at 8.2 per cent, implying that the fourth quarter growth is assumed at 5.9 per cent.

The nominal GDP for FY24 is projected at ₹294 trillion, assuming 9.1 per cent growth, slightly higher than the 8.9 per cent growth assumed in the first advance estimates released in January. This projection will likely ease the government's path to achieving the revised fiscal deficit target of 5.8 per cent of GDP for FY24.