Moving past aspirations on climate

Climate change is a "commons problem".

- AJAY TYAGI

The unusually high number of major natural calamities in recent years is a stark reminder of the proverbial "tragedy of the commons".

One of the serious failures of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations has been the developed countries' failure to fulfil their commitments to transfer finance and technology to developing countries, and not doing enough to sequester their past cumulative carbon emissions. Developing countries, relatively more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, have largely been left to fend for themselves. With time running out, these economies must quickly firm up their strategies, as there is no time left for blame games.

This column focuses on the need for India to have a quantifiable and monitorable plan, including a financing plan, to meet international commitments and facilitate smooth transition to a low-carbon economy. Let's begin with India's international commitments, the major ones being the reduction of emission intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) by 45 per cent by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, and achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070. While 2070 is a bit far away, what about the 2030 GDP emission target? Despite some commentary suggesting that India is well on its way to achieving this target ahead of schedule, the real question is: What exactly is the government's disaggregated, sectoral-level plan to meet this goal? Is there a PERT chart, a programme evaluation and review technique, delineating the timelines for achieving various milestones? What proportion of the target is envisaged to be achieved through administrative fiat like mandating renewable energy based power, increasing forest cover, and prescribing electric vehicles, and how much by market mechanism including carbon credit trading? The aspiration to achieve net-zero by 2070 has to be necessarily backed by a credible, meticulous and well-thought-out plan.