Trump Vs Harris: How Each Can Win Race To White House
Business Standard|November 05, 2024
The presidential contest is deadlocked as the nation votes today; opinion polls are exceptionally close across the country
BRUCE WOLPE
Trump Vs Harris: How Each Can Win Race To White House

On election eve in the United States, the presidential race is deadlocked.

The polls are exceptionally close across the country and in all the swing states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin in the industrial Midwest; Nevada and Arizona in the West; and Georgia and North Carolina in the South.

The final New York Times/Siena poll shows Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris leading by a very small margin or tied with Republican former President Donald Trump in all the swing states. The exception is Arizona, where Trump leads by a few percentage points.

While there is no clear favorite to win, there are several critical factors that will drive voters' decisions on Election Day.

Republicans turning against Trump

Trump's favourability is stuck around 43 per cent in nationwide polling. In the past two presidential elections, he fell short of taking 50 per cent of the national popular vote. As president, he never achieved over 50 per cent favourability. And he has never topped 50 per cent since leaving office.

This means he has hit a ceiling in his support and is highly unlikely to win the national popular vote on Tuesday.

This also reflects what happened to Trump in the Republican primaries to win the nomination. He dominated the field, defeating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and several others. But in most of those primaries, 15-20 per cent of Republican voters did not vote for Trump.

Where will these Republican voters ultimately land on Tuesday? Probably half want to vote Republican and will go with Trump. Others will not be able to bring themselves to vote for Harris and will simply not vote for president. Others will switch their support to Harris.

This story is from the November 05, 2024 edition of Business Standard.

Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.

This story is from the November 05, 2024 edition of Business Standard.

Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.

MORE STORIES FROM BUSINESS STANDARDView All
CESS AND SENSIBILITY
Business Standard

CESS AND SENSIBILITY

Southern states say cess and surcharge eat into their share of resources, urge 16th Finance Commission to consider contribution to national economy

time-read
4 mins  |
November 27, 2024
Over 6K pollution plaints in Delhi since Oct 2021; 38% still unresolved: CPCB
Business Standard

Over 6K pollution plaints in Delhi since Oct 2021; 38% still unresolved: CPCB

Delhi registered 6,170 complaints related to air pollution between October 15, 2021 and November 19, 2024, with 2,333 (38 per cent) of these remaining unresolved, according to data from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB).

time-read
1 min  |
November 27, 2024
Business Standard

India's transport future balances fossil fuels and clean tech

Fossil fuels will continue to play an important role in India's transportation sector, even as alternative fuel technologies see multifold growth.

time-read
1 min  |
November 27, 2024
Indians see wallets drain by ₹485 crore in 'UPI scams' in FY25
Business Standard

Indians see wallets drain by ₹485 crore in 'UPI scams' in FY25

Over 600,000 incidents of fraud have been reported in the ongoing financial year till September

time-read
1 min  |
November 27, 2024
Future of television is smart and networked
Business Standard

Future of television is smart and networked

The smart TV market has been stagnant. Is Dor the disruption it needs?

time-read
3 mins  |
November 27, 2024
Business Standard

Centre spent ₹3,623 crore on crop residue mgmt since 2018: Environment minister

Since 2018, the Centre has spent ₹3,623.45 crore on crop residue management in Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, with ₹1,681.45 crore allocated to Punjab, the highest among the states, Union Minister of State for Environment, Forest and Climate Change Kirti Vardhan Singh said in the Lok Sabha.

time-read
1 min  |
November 27, 2024
Business Standard

Silver prices as volatile as stocks: Should you pick gold or silver?

A Motilal Oswal Private Wealth (MOPW) report released on November 25 shows that between 1990 and October 2024, silver's price has been just as volatile as Indian stocks.

time-read
1 min  |
November 27, 2024
Tech stocks gain as recovery takes hold
Business Standard

Tech stocks gain as recovery takes hold

Nifty IT index hits all-time high as IT outlook turns positive

time-read
2 mins  |
November 27, 2024
Adani group stocks settle in red
Business Standard

Adani group stocks settle in red

UNDER PRESSURE

time-read
1 min  |
November 27, 2024
Enviro Infra booked 89.9 times on last day
Business Standard

Enviro Infra booked 89.9 times on last day

The initial public offering (IPO) of sewage treatment solutions provider Enviro Infra Engineers was subscribed 89.90 times on the closing day of bidding on Tuesday.

time-read
1 min  |
November 27, 2024