In missing key Tory targets, PM paved the way for Farage

WHEN Rishi Sunak took over 10 Downing Street in October 2022, the Reform UK party was averaging just 5 per cent in opinion polls.

- Patrick O'Flynn

Its then leader, the property magnate Richard Tice, was keeping it going largely out of his own pocket despite there being little sign of it ever becoming a major force.

Nigel Farage was serving as its "honorary life president" but not involving himself in its dayto-day activities. Even many former UKIP and Brexit Party voters were far from clear what Reform really stood for, while at least half the electorate had never heard of it.

Less than two years later and Reform is averaging 12 per cent in polls as General Election day looms, with Farage back in the leadership saddle and performing with gusto. The last three published polls have given it scores of 17 per cent, 17 per cent and 15 per cent.

In two of those, Reform was just two points behind the Conservatives. And though there is plenty of scope for Reform to start taking votes from Labour, its support has so far come overwhelmingly at the expense of the Tories.

There is a temptation to declare that Sunak has been an unlucky general here. When he called his snap early summer election, it initially seemed he had caught Farage on the hop and scared him off playing a major role. Then of course came the body blow of that classic Farage volte-face on Monday.