Denting & mending

An omnibus on the economy that punctures many claims but also provides solutions

- Madan Sabnavis

The $10 Trillion Dream Dented is a thought-provoking book on the state of the economy and future path by a bureaucrat who has worked with the government in probably one of the most important ministries—finance. Subhash Garg, who is a prolific economic commentator in the media today, presents a very balanced view of the economy, though at times is blunt when commenting on both performance and policy. Having worked in the government and overseen various activities, he quotes extensively from published data and shares several insights that could otherwise escape one's attention.

The title is interesting because it has become quite common to talk of a 5 or 10 trillion economy with timelines being extended when not achieved. This is what Garg has picked up and analyzed in great detail. He is critical of these numbers and targets. He is also not too convinced of the 'developed country' status, which is to be the final goal when India celebrates its centenary of independence in 2047. He uses data to show how the task is challenging given that past misses were mainly due to the requisite growth rates not being achieved.

One important suggestion he makes in this context is that we need to have some intermediate goal posts when talking of the economy 10 years or 20 years down the line so that we know where we stand which helps for introspection. All his arguments are backed up by data and hence none of the conclusions are impressionistic.

There are some public policies on which he is candid, such as the Covid-induced lockdown. He is critical of the lockdown that affected enterprises, many of which have not recovered till date. This appears a fair point in the narrative because he also uses data to show that our growth has been pushed down to the extent that the incremental output added by USA and China in the last few years is higher than the absolute GDP of the country.