However, the RBI's strategy of the buy/sell swaps in the mid to longer maturities has pushed those forwards lower. In mid-December, the 1-year implied yield fell below 2% for the first time in four months.On the contrary, yields on near maturities have surged, attributed largely to the arbitrage opportunities between the onshore and the NDF market, forex traders said. The NDF $/₹ rates have been rising due to rupee's weak outlook. To cash on this, banks buy dollars in the onshore forward market, which pushes up premiums.Unless RBI introduces additional steps such as open market operations or buybacks, rates of forward premiums are likely to stay higher, said forex traders. A large section of markets, government bond and forex market, is anticipating the central bank to announce open market operations in February."The increase is more on account of liquidity. We are in a liquidity deficit of about ₹2 lakh crore, which may increase as we approach March. So, short-term premiums look to remain higher unless RBI does something to ensure liquidity is high," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury.

Rupee Decline Drives Forward Premium Rates

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