CEMENT SPREADS INDICATE a slight improvement amid stable cement prices. As a key leading indicator of industry unitary EBITDA, the average Q3FY25 cement spread stands at ₹2,447/t, marking a modest increase of ₹66/t q-o-q. This improvement is driven by a 5% q-o-q decline in average fuel cost/t, while cement trade prices have remained largely flat. We estimate the industry's cement realisation at ₹4,649/t, reflecting a marginal sequential rise of ₹6/t, while fuel costs have decreased by ₹60/t q-o-q. However, the full impact of spot fuel cost reductions typically takes 60-90 days to reflect in income statements due to transit and inventory lags. Lagged spreads based on 60-day and 90-day fuel costs suggest potential expansions of ₹70/t and ₹50/t, due to lower fuel costs in Q3FY25. The 90-day lagged spread, which demonstrates a strong correlation with industry unitary EBITDA, underscores the potential for EBITDA improvement. (Cement spread is calculated as cement realisation net of fuel and freight costs, assuming a pet coke mix of 70% and a rail mix of 40%). Average Q3FY25TD imported pet coke prices have declined by 6% q-o-q, while imported thermal coal prices are down 1% q-o-q. Diesel prices have remained stable. Meanwhile, average imported thermal coal prices continue to soften. We anticipate that the industry will continue to benefit from low-cost fuel throughout 2HFY25, supporting margins in the near term.While there are near-term headwinds for the sector such as moderating trade prices, we remain positive largely on account of long-term tailwinds, such as: (i) higher volume growth than in the previous decade (CAGR of 5% over FY24-26F vs 4% in the past decade), and (ii) lower operating costs driven by moderating fuel cost. However, we remain cautious on a recovery in trade prices. The sector currently trades at an only 14% premium to its three-year average one-year forward EV/EBITDA (x).We prefer Ultratech, Shree Cement, Ambuja and Ramco. We have a Neutral rating on Nuvoco and ACC. We maintain our Reduce rating on Dalmia. NOMURA

Long-term outlook positive for cement sector

20,1951,2129,135,3125,4982

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