SIGNS OF SOFT LANDING OF WORLD ECONOMY HAVE RECEDED
THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered its growth forecasts for India for the current fiscal year and the next by 20 bps and 50 bps, to 5.9% and 6.3%, respectively.
This was broadly in line with the cuts in its global growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 by 10 bps each to 2.8% and 3%, but indicated that India may not be weathering the global turmoil as exceptionally as it was expected to. Of course, India will still be the fastest growing major economy during the forecast period.
Notably, the IMF's latest projection widens the gap between its forecast and that of the Reserve Bank of India for the current year. The central bank, in the monetary policy review last week, had marginally upped its GDP growth forecast for India to 6.5% for FY24 from 6.4% previously. Also, at 5.9%, the IMF's forecast is the lowest growth estimate for India for this year among the major agencies (see graph).
Global growth, according to the IMF, is expected to fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023 before recovering partially to 3% in 2024.
This story is from the April 12, 2023 edition of Financial Express Mumbai.
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This story is from the April 12, 2023 edition of Financial Express Mumbai.
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