Economy could hit $7 trillion by 2030: Govt

India is on course to become the third largest economy in the world with a GDP of $5 trillion in the next three years, and can "aspire to become a $7 trillion economy in the next six to seven years (by 2030)", according to a document released by the finance ministry two days before the last budget (an interim one) of the current government.

- Rajeev Jayaswal and Roshan Kishore

Ten years of the Narendra Modi government has been a journey from fragility to stability and strength" for the Indian economy, chief economic adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said in the report, whose estimates are based on a "reasonable set of assumptions with respect to the inflation differentials and the exchange rate".

The document "Indian Economy A Review", which was released by the CEA's office, is a commentary on the state of the economy and its future prospects and can be seen as a partial substitute to the customary Economic Survey which is released a day before the Budget and lays down the economic narrative of the government. The 2023-24 Economic Survey will only be released when the new governments will present the Final Budget for 2024-25 in July.

The report does not, however, replace the Economic Survey, CEA clarified. "That will come before the full budget after the general elections," he said. The full budget for FY25 is expected to be presented after the 2024 General Elections in July; an interim budget is only a Vote on Account, presented in an election year to cover expenditure for a brief period to keep the government functioning.

The document argues that the government's commitment to reforms, economic management and overhaul and expansion of the welfare net have unlocked energies which will lead to the Indian economy doing much better than what international agencies such as IMF expect it to do.