Resilience through predictions

Over 150 years, IMD has revolutionised weather forecasting through advanced technologies, benefiting agriculture and enhancing disaster preparedness. It's innovative march is a positive signal towards conquering existing challenges

- MADHAVAN NAIR RAJEEVAN

For India, the monsoon is not just rains; it is a multifaceted phenomenon that profoundly influences the nation's socio-economic fabric. Indian agriculture and the economy are intricately linked to the variability of the southwest monsoon. Therefore, making accurate forecasts across different timescales is critical for effective planning in various sectors.

Since its inception in 1875, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been at the forefront of monitoring and forecasting the monsoon. Over its 150-year journey, IMD has transformed from a modest observatory network into a cutting-edge scientific institution providing comprehensive weather and climate services.

Today, IMD operates an extensive network comprising surface observatories, approximately 6,000 rain gauges, upper-air radiosondes, Doppler weather radars, agro-meteorological stations, and state-of-the-art satellite systems.

The accuracy of monsoon predictions has significantly improved over the past decade, paving the way for numerous practical applications.

The Monsoon Mission, an initiative by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), has played a pivotal role in enhancing IMD's forecasting capabilities.

This remarkable progress stems from systematic advancements in data assimilation and the development of high-resolution prediction models with refined model physics.

Today, IMD leverages advanced ensemble forecasting systems for short, medium, extended-range, and seasonal predictions, establishing itself as a global leader in weather and climate forecasting.

Historically, short-range forecasts (2-3 days) relied on synoptic methods, which were limited in accuracy.

A paradigm shift occurred with the introduction of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in 1988, marked by the establishment of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) and India's first supercomputer.