Bank credit growth to stay healthy amidst 14 dip, retail to see fastest growth

Bank credit growth in India is expected to moderate to 14 per cent this fiscal after an estimated robust growth of 16 per cent in fiscal 2024 driven by strong economic activity and retail credit demand. This fiscal, growth will be tempered by a high base effect, a revision in risk weights and a somewhat lower gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

The retail segment may log the fastest growth, corporates may hold steady and medium and small enterprises may slow down on a high base, CRISIL ratings said on Tuesday. The high-base effect, especially with the merger of HDFC Ltd with HDFC Bank in fiscal 2024 will also have a bearing on retail growth.

The fundamental drivers of credit demand are broadly intact and a revival in private corporate capital expenditure (capex), especially towards the second half of fiscal 2025, can provide tailwind, suggests CRISIL.

On the other hand, the pace of deposit growth can keep a check on credit growth, even though the differential between the two has reduced over the past year. Within the expected overall bank credit growth of 14 per cent in fiscal 2025, the largest segment, corporate credit -- 45 per cent of bank credit -- should see growth remaining steady at 13 per cent, while retail which accounts for 28 per cent of bank credit, the second-largest segment, is expected to grow the fastest at 16 per cent.