India must recalibrate 'look east' strategy amid Arakan resurgence

Arakan victories reshape Myanmar dynamics. India must carve out its sphere of influence in the Arakan region

- JAYANTA ROY CHOWDHURY

A potential new nation or semi-autonomous region is emerging on the northeastern borders of India and Bangladesh's Cox's Bazar. This development stems from the remarkable success of the Arakan Army (AA), which has seized control of most of Myanmar's Rakhine State and parts of Chin State. Adding to this upheaval are the victories of other insurgent groups in northern Myanmar, including the Chin National Front (CNF) and the People's Defence Force (PDF). These campaigns have left Yangon's military junta with little to no control over its borders with India.

The Myanmarese junta has effectively lost authority in Rakhine, Chin, and Sagaing regions, which share boundaries with Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland. The CNF, controlling three-quarters of Chin State, along with the AA, seeks secession from Myanmar. Meanwhile, the PDF fights under the National Unity Government (NUG) banner, advocating for a return to democracy. While no group has officially declared independence, this restraint appears to be a tactical decision.

The AA, part of the "Three Brotherhood Alliance" alongside the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, has emerged as the most influential rebel group. Over the past 13 months, the AA has established control over 14 of Rakhine's 17 townships. It is advancing towards critical infrastructure, including the Taungup-Pandaung road in central Myanmar, which hosts strategic ordnance factories and heavy industries.