Mahayuti's monster win raises questions about the verdict

A combination of factors have been credited for Mahayuti's win; but what is incredibly surprising is the sheer scale of MVA's decimation

- ALI CHOUGULE

The BJP-led Mahayuti's landslide win in Maharashtra and India bloc's comprehensive victory in Jharkhand have yet again shown that the elections in India are no more ideological battles; instead, they are contests won based on welfare populism and who gets their electoral and social alliances right. While welfare schemes do influence and swing poll outcomes, populist measures and welfare outreach succeed when an electoral bloc manages to stitch together a more representative social alliance. The ability of a party or bloc to go beyond its core support base and widen its reach is as important as unambiguous political messaging and, may be, even unapologetic polarization.

What the latest round of elections have also proved is that predicting electoral outcomes is a perilous exercise and exit polls are as good as nothing. With credibility taking a hit because of their inconsistent track record and significant misses in recent times, trust in exit polls has become a thing of the past. If the general election in June and the Haryana poll last month showed that in complex political landscapes, it is not easy to predict election outcomes, Maharashtra has proved that exit polls are a completely unreliable indicator of election results; as suspect as the Indian Meteorological Department's weather forecast during the monsoon season. That psephology can go so wrong is a matter of serious concern and self-analysis for the survey agencies that conduct these polls.