Robert Hayward, a peer and former MP who first identified the phenomenon of "shy Tories" before the 1992 election, said his analysis of local election results suggested that the Conservatives were getting more support from voters identified as being undecided than was showing up in the polls.
"About 33 years on, I am yet again convinced that a statistical bias exists in the polls," he said. Polling before the election has shown commanding leads for Labour of more than 20 points in some surveys, such as YouGov's, while others, such as Opinium's, show a gap of about 14 points.
Some constituency-level polling by YouGov has suggested the Conservatives are heading for a near wipeout, with its April projection pointing to more than 400 seats out of 650 going to Labour.
Most experts, MPs and political strategists across the parties think Labour is almost certainly heading for victory, but the size of its lead will determine how much of a majority it could be heading for.
Lord Hayward said it was "not shy Tories" all over again, and that Labour still undoubtedly had a large lead over the Conservatives, but that he was concerned the polls were "getting it wrong".
This story is from the May 28, 2024 edition of The Guardian.
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This story is from the May 28, 2024 edition of The Guardian.
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