Rebel offensive in Syria may not raise a terror threat, but wider instability is a pressing concern

When Sir Richard Moore, the head of MI6, warned in a speech given 10 days ago that he had "never seen the world in a more dangerous state", Syria was mentioned just once.

- Dan Sabbagh

The context was that jihadist terrorism was on the retreat in the country, but after the lightning success of the rebel offensive, questions will inevitably be asked again.

Intelligence chiefs are now having to quickly reassess the triumphant Syrian rebels and, in particular, the leading group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), currently designated as a terror organisation by the US and the UK. Once a Syrian offshoot of al-Qaeda, HTS cut its affiliation in 2016 and, under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the group has sought to project a moderate image as it has led the counter-offensive from Idlib to Damascus.

External experts are divided as to how HTS may govern. Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former UN terror expert, said "good academic experts know HTS and disagree very sharply with each other. Some will tell you it is reformist and will be law abiding; others will say it is the Taliban all over again".