Are the Tories heading for a Canada 1993-style wipeout?

Thirty years ago a ruling Conservative Party was demolished at the polls thanks to a party called Reform but history is very unlikely to repeat itself in the UK

- Jabed Ahmed

It began as a whisper, in the nerdier corners of political social media. Now, as the election nears, the question isn’t quite a roar but it’s being asked everywhere, from national newspapers to the pages of The Spectator, the bible of the right: is Rishi Sunak facing a Canada 1993 moment?

The similarities are enough to send shivers down the spines of Tory candidates – ruling Conservatives challenged at an election by a right-wing party called “Reform”. In Canada, the result was electoral oblivion: 167 parliamentary seats lost – including those of then-prime minister Kim Campbell – to leave the Progressive Conservative Canadian Party with just two seats, and the Liberal Party in power.

With Sunak’s party already facing a 24-point deficit in the polls to Labour, is there a chance that British Conservatives could face a similar fate? The answer, it seems, is no – or at least, not unless things go catastrophically wrong for the Conservatives between now and 4 July.