Bombshell poll forecasts the Tories will win only 82 seats

Rishi Sunak will lead the Conservatives to their worst election result in history, with a major poll for The Independent suggesting that the party will hold on to just 82 seats.

- ARCHIE MITCHELL, ALICJA HAGOPIAN

The Techne survey, released on the eve of the general election, put Labour on course for a 272-seat majority, with Sir Keir Starmer winning 461 seats.

After a day of Tory infighting over the potential outcome of the election, with one of Mr Sunak’s closest allies conceding that Labour will win in a record-breaking landslide, four polls predicted how many seats each party would gain.

While there was a range of results, the worst outcome put the Tories on course to drop below 100 seats, while the best-case scenario saw them winning just 126. This would far exceed the defeat faced by John Major in 1997, when the number of Conservative seats fell to 165.

All outcomes would beat the Tories’ worst election result in history, which came in 1906 when the party won just 156 seats and Arthur Balfour, who had quit as prime minister a month earlier, lost in his own constituency.

The unprecedented drubbing predicted in today’s election marks an incredible fall from grace for the party, which won 365 seats just five years ago under Boris Johnson. Even members of Mr Sunak’s inner circle have warned that he could lose in his constituency of Richmond and Northallerton, one of the safest Tory seats in the country.

The Techne poll for The Independent forecast that Sir Keir would become prime minister with 461 seats, the Conservatives would come second with 82, and the Liberal Democrats third with 55. Meanwhile, it suggested that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would win seven seats, including Clacton in Essex where Mr Farage is standing.