Does Reform have a chance of outdoing the Tory party?

Nigel Farage, reinstalled as leader of Reform UK, is on a roll. You may have seen the social media clip of the beaming extremist, sat in the back of a cab, rapping "Guess who's back" to Eminem's classic 2002 track "Without Me".

- SEAN O'GRADY

Farage is gloating about finally overtaking the Tories, albeit in one opinion poll, and is merrily trolling Rishi Sunak, whose campaign has been troubled to say the least. Reform UK, according to Farage, will win seats in the Commons on 4 July, and he insists that, whatever happens, his party will be the opposition to Labour.

It’s a good moment to take a look at Farage...

Is Reform UK ahead of the Tories?

Quite possibly, but that’s not the most important thing. As YouGov, the pollsters concerned, point out, with Reform on 19 per cent and the Conservatives on 18 per cent, the usual 3 per cent margin of error could mean that the Tories are in fact as much as 5 per cent ahead; or Reform could actually be on a “real” rating of 22 per cent, with the Tories trailing on 15 per cent – a substantial seven-point difference.

The much more important thing is that the trend seems to be upward for Reform UK, with the Tories attracting historically feeble levels of public support and Farage boosting Reform’s profile. In other words, the fact that Reform is so close to the Tories is, or should be, quite astonishing.

Why is Reform doing so well?

It’s mainly a function of Tory weakness. Reform is a receptacle for those who, like Farage, hanker for the Thatcherite era and are especially exercised by migration and so-called “culture war” issues, such as trans rights.

How many seats will Reform win?