Half of voters surprised by Trump's win, poll finds

More than half of Americans were surprised by Donald Trump's win in the presidential election - including 43 per cent of Republicans.

- ALICJA HAGOPIAN

A poll of 1,941 US adults by Prolific, exclusively for The Independent, found that, following months of predictions on a knife’s edge, Americans on all sides ended up being surprised by the final outcome of the White House race.

Some 54 per cent of people were at least quite surprised by the outcome of the election, with 14 per cent of those “very surprised”. A third were not very surprised, and 16 per cent were not surprised at all.

Andrew Gordon, researcher at Prolific, explained that this surprise correlates to difficulties with polling in a polarised environment.

“The fact that over half of voters, including 43 per cent of Republicans, were surprised by the election outcome likely reflects the growing gap between perception and reality in our media-driven environment,” he said. “The level of surprise underscores the limitations of polling and media narratives in accurately capturing the public sentiment, especially when polarisation is high.”

Among Republicans, whose party saw success in the presidential race, as well as in the House and Senate races, 43 per cent said they were surprised by the outcome while 8 per cent were “very surprised”. On the other hand, 35 per cent of Republicans were not very surprised that Mr Trump won, and 23 per cent were not at all surprised.

The poll also found that the vast majority of Americans (78 per cent) believe that Mr Trump is more powerful now than in his first term. This belief transcends party lines; for some, this may be more positive than others, said Mr Gordon.