His Reform UK will win only a handful of seats, including Clacton in Essex, where Farage was finally elected to the Commons at the eighth attempt. But Reform's role was decisive in many other places - including Liz Truss's unexpected defeat. As John Curtice, the election experts' expert, told the BBC: "This does look like an election the Conservatives have lost and lost primarily because of the votes they lost to Reform... Around two-thirds of the seats the Conservatives have lost are seats where, if Reform voters had voted Conservative, they would still have hung on to."
Curtice pointed out that Labour's vote, while up spectacularly in Scotland since the 2019 election, was down in Wales and barely changed in England. Of course, Labour - and the revived Liberal Democrats - needed to be trusted enough to win Tory seats. But Farage undoubtedly gave them a helping hand. This has huge implications. Starmer deserves the plaudits he is getting for matching Tony Blair's 1997 landslide, from a much lower base, and after Labour's worst defeat since 1935 in 2019. But Labour's share of the vote, probably less than the 40 per cent it won under Jeremy Corbyn in 2017, will raise questions about its mandate. Unusually, Starmer will have to "seal the deal" with voters after winning the election, rather than before it.
This story is from the July 06, 2024 edition of The Independent.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Sign In
This story is from the July 06, 2024 edition of The Independent.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 9,000+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Sign In
Carse justifies England faith as the archetypal bold pick
If you won a boxing match after your opponent continually punched themselves in the face, how much credit can you take?
Tenacious Diallo the key to Amorim pressing machine
Old Trafford has not seen anything like this before.
Gold King Cole packs the Bridge with merry old souls
In the 83rd minute, the ball rolled to the feet of Cole Palmer in a bubble of space outside Aston Villa's box, and the crowd snapped to attention.
Vibrant Anfield marks the changing of the Guardiola
There was a lull in the noise, a break in the Anfield atmosphere, when a defiant chant emerged from a corner near Stefan Ortega’s goal.
What is so daunting about Spain's new data checks?
Q You have written about the new “red tape” for visitors to Spain. So, as well as your usual passport details you will give a contact number, address and email. Not exactly the Spanish Inquisition, is it?
Sectarian clashes claim at least 130 lives in Pakistan
At least 130 people were killed in deadly sectarian clashes in Pakistan's northwestern Kurram district in spite of a tentative ceasefire, days after gunmen opened fire on a convoy of vehicles carrying Shia Muslims, local officials said.
Coalition government likely in Ireland as count proceeds
Fianna Fail say decisions on power-sharing for another day’
How Syria's forgotten war is back on the world's agenda
Many believed the country was lost in an unsolvable conflict, until everything changed in a matter of days, writes Bel Trew
Assad regime scrambles to halt Syrian rebels’ advance
Civilians reportedly killed by Russian and Syrian airstrikes
Mother of poisoning victim says she knew she would die
Lawyer Simone White succumbed to the effects of methanol while backpacking in Laos with two of her childhood friends