Who is now the favourite to become leader of the SNP?

Sean O’Grady outlines the next stage in the leadership battle

Three official candidates will compete for the leadership of the Scottish National Party and to be the next first minister of Scotland. Roughly 100,000 SNP members are eligible to vote, and the result will be announced soon after the polls close on 27 March.

After the shock departure of Nicola Sturgeon, who has been at or near the top of Scottish politics for two decades, the eventual winner will find they have a hard act to follow.

What happens now?

Jostling began almost as soon as Sturgeon quit on 15 February, and much has happened since – not least the rows about finance minister Kate Forbes’s views on sexual morality. Forbes is still in the running, and is joined by bookies’ favourite Humza Yousaf along with Ash Regan, a former minister who stood down in protest at the Gender Recognition Reform Bill.

While the contest will be nowhere near as long as the recent battles for the Tory leadership, there are some weeks to go, with a two-week voting window opening up on 13 March; time enough for more gaffes and upsets.

There haven’t yet been any polls of SNP members, but there has been a poll of SNP voters, which may be suggestive. To some surprise, it places Forbes in the lead, with the support of 28 per cent. Yousaf is on 20 per cent, and Regan on 7 per cent (a chunky 31 per cent are undecided).

The contest uses a preferential “alternative vote” system rather than first past the post. In a tight contest between Forbes and Yousaf, the second-preference votes of Regan’s supporters could become critical.