HO will be the next US president? Hazarding a guess would be like flipping a coin. If one were to go by the average of all opinion polls, former president Donald John Trump is fast closing the gap with incumbent vice-president Kamala Devi Harris, who has held a lead ever since she got a wild card entry into the fray after President Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr opted out.
According to the latest projections by election analysis site FiveThirtyEight, Trump won 526 times out of 1,000 simulations and Harris 471 times. Three of these simulations, done using polling, economic and demographic data, threw up no winner.
The higher winning probability for Trump, however, doesn't mean he is poised to get more votes from Americans than Harris. This is because in US presidential elections, the total votes polled nationally in favour of candidates in themselves don't decide the winner. What matters is the vote of the Electoral College, comprising 538 electors who will actually pick the next US President. The presidential candidate who has the support of a minimum of 270 electors (half of the Electoral College + 1) will emerge victorious. In the rare event of a 269-269 tie, the newly elected House of Representatives will decide the winner.
There have been instances in the past where those who got the majority of popular votes failed to make it to the White House. In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton received nearly three million more votes than Trump, but the latter became President with the
for the Republican candidate, then the Republican slate of electors is chosen. If a majority vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, the Democratic slate of electors is chosen.
This story is from the November 03, 2024 edition of The Morning Standard.
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This story is from the November 03, 2024 edition of The Morning Standard.
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