According to the latest RBI data, retail loan growth moderated to 16.4 percent in September 2024, compared to 18.2 percent a year ago. Within the retail segment, almost all sub-segments saw a slowdown, with housing loans an exception. Significant declines were seen in the growth of personal loans at 12.1 percent from 23.6 percent, vehicle loans at 13.3 percent from 21.2 percent and credit card loans at 18 percent from 31.4 percent. This is a departure from previous years, when banks were turning in healthy, double-digit growth for a while, which forced the central bank to caution against exuberance. To mitigate the risk of bad loans, the RBI even imposed higher capital requirements on banks last year.Besides retail loans, credit growth to the services sector decelerated to 15.2 percent from 21.6 percent, owing to lower growth in credit offtake to NBFCs. In particular, the pace of lending to NBFCs slowed to 9.5 percent in September 2024 from 21.9 percent a year ago. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, who has repeatedly flagged concerns regarding fast credit growth, has not only tightened compliance norms for NBFCs' loan exposures, but has also begun taking action on erring shadow lenders. As a result, banks seem to be mindful about NBFCs' lending, though brokerages expect some stress over the coming quarters.One upshot is more bank credit to industry, which grew 42.85 percent in the first half of the current fiscal. Specifically, loans to large firms the biggest component and one that grew at a dismal pace until recently-has finally turned the corner. Domestic demand is showing proof of life as private consumption is slowly picking up. Given the healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, it's likely that the pace of growth in industrial loans will hold. The government's continued thrust on infrastructure spending will complement the demand drivers, as the RBI noted in October. That said, banks should be cautious about bad loans, which fell to a 12-year low of 2.8 percent in March 2024, but are expected to rise in 2024-25.

SLOWER CREDIT GROWTH FEEDS HEALTHIER BANK

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