An aging and shrinking population

BREAKTHROUGH

- ELFREN S. CRUZ

As recently as a decade ago, one of the major concerns of the world was about overpopulation. The few people predicting a coming age of depopulation or an age of population decline were not taken seriously.

However, starting around a decade ago, the decrease in population not only continued but seemingly quickened. For two generations, the world's average childbearing levels have moved downward and this downswing just kept going.

The global fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman approximates the replacement threshold in affluent countries with high life expectancy. The replacement level is somewhat higher in countries with lower life expectancy. Today, the great majority of the people of the world live in countries with below replacement fertility levels.

Let us examine the population story in selected regions of the world. In Southeast Asia, the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) estimated that the region started falling below the replacement level around 2018. Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam have been sub-replacement countries for years. Indonesia, the fourth most populous country in the world, started having a population decline in 2022. In Thailand and Myanmar, deaths now exceed births and the population is declining. Even the Philippines now reports just 1.9 births per woman, which is slightly below the 2.1 birth rate needed for replacement of the population.