GUESSWORK 2025

We do some amateur mobility soothsaying

- By KAP MACEDA AGUILA

What a difference a year makes, we always say, even if 2024 specifically felt like a blur. To be honest, there were months it seemed like we were treading water, only to have flurries of activities and developments here and there.

You could say that motoring and mobility in the Philippines were defined as having more of the same in the Philippines - which is actually good. Sales remained on the uptrend as of November 2024, with the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI) reporting a YTD figure of 425,208 - up 8.8 percent over the same period (January to November) in 2023. Significantly, CAMPI nearly eclipsed its 2023 sales total (429,807) with still a month of selling to go. Even if we assume flat growth over the December 2023 figures, we're looking at 468,960 units - tantalizingly close to the half-million mark many in the industry have been projecting years ago before COVID-19 scuttled everything.

During a recent traditional Christmas lunch with members of the media, Toyota Motor Philippines Corporation (TMP) Chairman Alfred Ty said as much: "The year seems headed to a strong finish. It is looking highly likely that the market will end with sales of around 470,000 units in 2024. That would be within breathing distance of our record of 473,000 units sold back in 2017."

In a few weeks, we'll know for certain. For now, I think it's a good bet to assume CAMPI sales will breach 470,000 units.

And since we're getting in the mood for projections, please indulge me in some amateur predictions for 2025 from where I'm seated. Time will tell if these declarations are foolish or factual.