In defense of Philippine sovereignty

The common impression is that sometimes wars can be started accidentally.

- ELFREN S. CRUZ

Even such major wars as the first world war were thought by some people to have started accidentally.

However, political scientists Erik Lin-Greenberg of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has written that wars are not accidents. He says that uncertainty also raises the prospect that provocations will lead to a crisis that will spiral out of a leader's control. This use of brinkmanship to pressure a rival and the desire to limit escalation sometimes forces decision-makers to navigate a crisis cautiously. The leaders on opposing sides often probe how far they can go while keeping a situation under control. But this does not always work out.

Among his examples, Lin-Greenberg uses the Philippines as a case study and he writes: "Consider the Philippines' calculations for responding to Chinese provocations in the water around its territory. It is unclear what would drive Manila to use force in response to aggressive Chinese moves against Philippine ships. It is equally unclear how Beijing would respond to Manila's actions and whether such a crisis would lead the Philippines to invoke the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty which commits Washington to defend the country and could thus draw the US forces into the dispute. The uncertainty surrounding this interaction may make Beijing more cautious than it otherwise would be."