2025 Will Test Resilience of Nations

The world seems more unstable and unpredictable today than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

- MALEEHA LODHI

Heightened geopolitical tensions, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and uncertainties in the global risk environment make the international outlook a troubled one for the year ahead.

The global order has been fragmenting for some time now. Meanwhile, the shift to a more multipolar world is gathering pace, with Western dominance eroding and multilateral institutions coming under greater stress. Middle powers will play a growing role in shaping geopolitics in a landscape of changes in the global balance of power.

One of the biggest questions for 2025 is whether president-elect Donald Trump's second term in office will unleash a more volatile period in global affairs. Some of his policy plans promise to be disruptive for an already disordered world. Among the top geopolitical developments to watch will be how the US under Trump deals with allies, adversaries and competitors. The future course of relations between the US and China will continue to be the most significant strategic dynamic in the year ahead. Given Trump's unpredictable and mercurial personality, Sino-US relations will either see further escalation in tensions or some kind of grand bargain driven by Trump's transactional approach.

Nevertheless, his threat of imposing higher tariffs on China as well as other countries with a trade surplus with the US, has prompted many experts to warn that a more intense global trade war will be among 2025's top risks. The London-based risk consultancy firm, Control Risks, predicts that the coming year will establish "national security as the guiding principle of international trade and investment".