How Sweden's Nato entry contributes to strategic shift in Europe's security

Its well-equipped, well-trained armed forces a big boost to alliance’s capabilities

- Jonathan Eyal

The weather did not oblige: It rained heavily as Sweden's Crown Princess Victoria - the country's heir to the throne - and her top ministers watched the Swedish flag go up for the first time at the headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) military alliance in Brussels on March 11.

Gloomy weather aside, nobody attending the ceremony doubted its significance. By becoming Nato's 32nd member state, Sweden has not only boosted the capabilities of the United States-led military alliance in Europe, it has also contributed to a broader strategic shift in Europe's security arrangements.

For over two centuries, Sweden had refused to join any military alliance. The strategy of standing aloof served the nation well: It spared ordinary Swedes the carnage of both world wars.

However, the rest of Europe often misunderstood the policy.

Contrary to popular perceptions, Sweden was never a neutral state; while it refused to join Nato when the alliance was established after the end of World War II, the Swedes remained firmly in the Western camp.

And, as previously classified government records now being made public indicate, Sweden secretly cooperated with Western intelligence agencies in monitoring and tracking the capabilities of the Soviet Union's military throughout the Cold War.

Still, with a mighty Russian fleet and St Petersburg - Russia's second-largest city - just across the waters of the Baltic Sea, the Swedes were usually careful to avoid any overt anti-Russian move.

All this changed in February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, a move interpreted by most Swedish politicians as evidence that countries that do not benefit from the US security guarantee could become Russia's next targets.