News analysis: Two small opposition parties may give Japan's Ishiba stability to govern

TOKYO - Two small opposition parties are in a position to make or break Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government after a general election that was devastating for the erstwhile ruling coalition comprising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito.

- Walter Sim

Mr Ishiba, who took office only on Oct 1, was obviously smarting from the LDP's worst showing since 2009 as people showed their disgust over a political slush fund scandal in their vote.

He struck a defiant tone at a testy news conference on Oct 28, batting away questions about how he would take responsibility by stressing that he was not going to resign.

He also hinted that he saw a minority government that seeks cooperation on a policy basis as the way forward, dismissing - for now - the idea of broadening the LDP-Komeito coalition.

Yet, horse-trading has already begun, and the question is whether Mr Ishiba has the political acumen and acuity to navigate a difficult road ahead.

The silver lining for the LDP is that it remains the largest party in the 465-seat Lower House with 191 seats, down from 247. Komeito, meanwhile, has 24 seats - down from 32 - giving the coalition 215 seats.

A simple majority means 233 lawmakers, while a stable majority of 244 seats will allow the smooth passage of budget proposals and Bills.

A minority government would be chaotic for many reasons, not least because Mr Ishiba will find it tricky to pursue his own agenda without concessions.

The opposition, with a collective 250, has the numbers to vote against legislation or even topple the government by filing a no-confidence motion.

This is why the LDP is now said to be courting the ideologically similar Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Japan Innovation Party, better known as Nippon Ishin no Kai, or Ishin for short.